NLDS, Here We Come

So the Dodgers it is. Their pitching commands respect, a fact that is particularly important in the playoffs. But their lineup, even with Manny, can’t match the Cubs. The Cubs have handled the Cardinals for the last several years despite contending with Pujols (who I’d take over Manny every day of the week and twice on Sunday). Plus, though all their hitters have improved with Manny around, they don’t have anyone who can really make you pay. So if it comes to it, I have no problem with intentionally walking Manny. And I don’t think Lou does either.

This series—and the NLCS, should it follow—really break down fairly simply. The Cubs are the best team in the NL by a considerable margin. So long as they are who we think they are, they will be fine. We don’t need to over-analyze matchups or come up with scenarios in which they can steal a game here or there. Those calculations are for the underdogs. If the Cubs play as they’ve played this season, they will represent the NL in the World Series. Period.

Caveats about over-analysis aside, this is how I see the series playing out.

Game 1. I foresee a low scoring, close game, pitched by two of the more dominating pitchers in the NL. Plus, both teams have been playing it low-key for several days after clinching, and are currently on a two-day layoff. If layoffs, even short ones, help anyone, they help the pitchers. A tiny glitch in a hitter’s timing can make the difference between a homer and a flyout, or a base knock and a groundout.

And given the current chilly conditions, the weather doesn’t seem to be doing the hitters any favors right now.

Dempster has been almost unhittable at Wrigley all year. He handles 7 innings, then gives way to Marmol and Wood, just like Lou scripted it. So let’s call it 3-2 Cubs.

Game 2. Carlos Zambrano, aka Z, aka X (as in Mr. X, as in who knows who he really is or what he’s really about or what he’s going to do) pitches for this game. Your guess is as good as mine. For the record, my guess is that Z throws a solid but not great game, perhaps 6 innings and 3 runs. But offense will be buoyed by the Game 1 win and any little kinks will have been fully worked out. 6-3 Cubs.

Game 3. This is the one I think the Dodgers can steal. Harden pitches. He can’t go as deep into games as the others, and thanks to control issues he hasn’t been economical with his pitches lately. I see him pitching 5 innings with 8 strikeouts, maybe a couple of walks, and 2 earned runs. That leaves 4 innings for the bullpen. If our middle relief (which has been solid most of the year but a little shaky of late) is going to hurt us during any game, it will be this one. Plus, the Dodgers will get a boost from their home crowd and will be aching to stave off elimination. Final score: 5-4 Dodgers.

Game 4. Not much mystery here. Ted Lilly does exactly what he’s been doing for the last several weeks and baffles Dodger hitters. The Dodger rotation, while solid, doesn’t go as deep as the Cubs. So in a lot of ways, as good as Dempster is and as good as Zambrano and Harden can be, this game might present our most obvious advantage (even if they bring back Lowe on three days’ rest—I’ll take a rested Ted Lilly in that matchup any day). A few timely hits, and on to the NLCS we go. 4-1 Cubs.

Upset (Some More)

College football did not disappoint this weekend.  Four top 25 teams lost to unranked teams at home!  The biggest surprise was the Florida loss to Mississippi.  (That was fun to type!)  I will admit that the Badgers loss at the Big House disappointed me.  I wanted the Illini to be able to see how vulnerable Rich’s team is before they head there next weekend.  And I like cheering for Coach Bielema most of the time.

But Wake Forest lost to Navy, and Clemson lost to Maryland — both surprises.  And North Carolina over Miami — what’s up with that?  I realize Miami’s program isn’t up to the school’s standards, but North Carolina really is building a football program.  That’s a bit hard to wrap my mind around…

Then take a look at what ‘Bama did to Georgia in the first half — at Georgia.  Wow.  The Tide really did roll and although the final wasn’t quite so bad, the score was 31-0 at halftime.  Not exactly what was expected from the #3 Bulldogs during a prime time “black-out” game.  So while the final may not be a huge upset, the way it happened certainly was.

Overall, it was a crazy, entertaining day of college football, and while the Illini didn’t join the list of teams doing the upsetting, they played very well at Happy Valley, where JoePa was able to maintain a 1 game lead for most college wins over Bobby Bowden.  That little tidbit made the Illini loss a tiny bit easier to take.

Upset

It’s losing to an inferior team.  It’s managers fighting for their jobs and a playoff spot.  It’s embarrassed NFL fans.  It’s what makes sports entertaining.  Let me present a few cases.

USC
My personal favorite.  Oregon State opened their season with a loss at Stanford.  Then they were torn to pieces by the Nittany Lions at Penn State.  Yes, they manhandled the Rainbow Warriors, but Hawaii just isn’t the same without Colt Brennan.  Meanwhile, Pete Carroll and his team prepared to roll through the season.  The talking heads said the only team able to beat USC would be USC.  But although they played a role in the loss, give credit to hometown boy and head coach Mike Riley for running right at USC.  With a true freshman.  Who is barely taller than me.  Jacquizz Rodgers impressed.  As did the Beaver defense.  Mark Sanchez expected to break them in the second half, but they stood firm.  Penalties hurt USC, but Oregon State made plays.  Good stuff.

Ozzie Guillen
The White Sox led the AL Central for much of the season.  Yes, the Twins hung around, but Thome and company were in control.  The addition of Griffey Jr. midway through the season added to their offense.  But now, with just a couple games left, Guillen is watching the season slip away.  And in true Ozzie fashion, he’s not taking it lightly.  He’s upset.  And that makes for great quotes.  Ozzie is really entertaining when he’s upset.

Jerry Manuel
Although not as firey as his AL counterpart mentioned above, Jerry is upset.  The Mets have had a great season, despite the bullpen issues TheWittyOne has pointed out more than once.  But their season is on the line.  And they struggled against the Cubs “B” team, splitting a 4-game series that included a grand slam from a Cubs pitcher, a 5-for-5 game for a Cubs AAA call-up and Mets wins only in the 9th or 10th innings.  His upset interviews are also amusing.  He’s being forced to start his ace on short rest, and still may not avoid the team’s second annual End-Of-Season Collapse. 

NFL Fans
As documented by TheWittyOne here and here.  And I really can’t say it better than she does.

Last year’s college football season delighted in the upset.  Top teams fell almost weekly.  The BCS rankings were a mess.  It was fabulous.  Congratulations to Oregon State for grabbing the 2008 upset headlines.  I hope the rest of the season can match it. 

Oh, and a note to the Cubs — let’s be sure you do everything you can to avoid this category as the playoffs start.  Thank you.

Here Come the Mets (?)

For most of the summer, I’ve been of the opinion that the god-awful NL West presented a good NLDS match-up for the Cubs. However, given the increasingly loud sucking sound that the Mets bullpen has made over the last few weeks, that match-up is looking mighty tempting.

Furthermore, the current state of affairs means that the Mets will absolutely need Game 162. In all likelihood, Sunday will arrive with the wildcard still in doubt. And even if they win Games 160 and 161 and Milwaukee loses Games 160 and 161, that means the Mets would be no worse than one game behind the Phillies–i.e., winning on Sunday would give the possibility of avoiding a first-round date with the Cubs. This means that Johan Santana is on the slate for Sunday, and would be available for Game 2 at the earliest, if he pitches on three days’ rest.

Plus, the rain on the east coast may delay the end of the season, which may delay the tiebreaker games. How awesome would it be if the Mets have to finish up their season on Monday, then play the Brewers on Tuesday, then play us on Wednesday. Without Johan Santana. With their bad bullpen.

Dare to dream.

Playoff Roster (Possibly Part 1 of 2)

Let’s talk playoff roster. For now, pitchers. We may talk about the others at a later date.

Apparently, Lou has become enamored with the idea of carrying just 11 pitchers for the playoffs. It’s a risky proposition, but not one I’m opposed to. So let’s assume that only 11 will make it. This is how I see it shaking out (but not necessarily how Lou sees it).

First, the easy ones. The four-man rotation: Dempster, Zambrano, Lilly and Harden. Also: Marmol and Wood, your primary set-up guy and your closer, respectively. And while a Neal Cotts outing isn’t always as confidence-inspiring as I’d like, he seems a lock as the primary lefty. And, coming from someone with a long history of animosity toward him, Jason Marquis has also earned a spot. Carrying 11 pitchers leaves no room for error. One short outing by a starter, and you risk blowing up your entire bullpen—unless you have someone like Marquis who can take some of those innings.

That leaves three spots with four definite candidates and two darkhorses (I’m ruling out Angel Guzman and Kevin Hart without comment).

Chad Gaudin – Pro: Has thrown the ball pretty well since coming over from Oakland, and he can give you more than one inning. Con: His health is a major question mark as he’s missed the last several weeks.

Bob Howry – Pro: He is a veteran presence. And last year, he contributed with several crucial outings. Con: I truthfully can’t remember the last time Howry had an effective outing in a meaningful situation. There haven’t been too many disappointments with the Cubs this year, but Howry probably ranks as the biggest.

Sean Marshall – Pro: He gives you another lefty and he can also take more than one inning. And he’s selflessly done whatever the team has asked all year. You’d like to reward that. Con: The two roles he’d fill—lefty and long relief—have already been spoken for.

Jeff Samardzija – Pro: He’s shown the ability to be a shutdown reliever when he’s on. You’d like to have a shutdown option for the 7th, rather than burn out Carlos Marmol by having him throw two innings. Con: His control has been nonexistent of late.

Randy Wells – Pro: He’s unscored upon in all his appearances so far this year. Con: All of those appearances have come in a short period of time over the last few weeks, when rosters are somewhat watered down anyway. No real track record here. (Plus, is he even technically available for the post-season roster?)

Michael Wuertz – Pro: He’s pitched well since being called up in September. Outside of one implosion against the Reds, he hasn’t allowed a run. Con: History tells us that more implosions may be on the way. There’s a reason he was demoted in July.

Seems like a lot of tough decisions. But the catch is that one of the potentially toughest decisions is also the smartest—at least in my opinion. Leave Howry off the playoff roster. If you’ve got the stones to do that, then the rest falls into place.

Assuming they don’t pitch themselves out of a spot, your final three are Gaudin, Samardzija and Marshall. If Gaudin’s health won’t allow him to pitch, or if Samardzija’s control issues appear once again, then that leaves a spot open for either Howry or Wells. That would be a tough call. It’s either an veteran with a good track record who’s been ineffective, or a rookie who’s been effective recently but has no track record. I’d probably take Howry in this situation, even though I hate him, but I’m not sure how much it matters. If it comes down to Howry vs. Wells, whoever gets picked is probably going to be the last option out of the pen and may not see any action at all.

If Lou insists on including Howry, I’d give the inside track to Gaudin and Samardzija for the final two spots, with Marshall ready to step in if any of them falter in the final week. I’d hate, hate, hate to leave Marshall off, but the inclusion of both Marquis and Cotts really does work against him.

Wuertz is an option that should only be called upon in the most dire of circumstances.

“Fall Training”

The Cubs clinched the NL Central on Saturday, with just more than a week to go in the season.  (I would have enjoyed watching the game, but apparently Fox regional thought those in North Carolina cared more about the Twins and the Rays than the Cubs and the Cards.  And maybe they are right, but those sitting with me in the airport strongly disagreed — although possible, it isn’t ideal to follow a big game on cell phones.)

And while the Cubs have yet to see who their first opponent will be, they have the luxury of a period that Lou seems to be treating as “fall training.”  He’s giving rest to some of the regulars, including Ryan Theriot, who was faltering (until his 3-3 performance with 2 walks against the Mets), and Rich Hardin, who will be set up with a bit of extra rest so he will have one more start before playoff game #2.  And Lou is playing around a bit.  Example: Sending the runners on 1st and 2nd on the first pitch of a Theriot at-bat with 0 outs. 

The Cubs seem to have an attitude kind of like spring training, when it really doesn’t matter, but you are trying to feel out what the season will bring and play your best.  For the next week, it really doesn’t matter to the Cubs (although they will impact the NL wild card), but they have a chance to feel out what the post-season may bring.  Pie, Micah and others may be auditioning for a spot on the playoff roster.  And Lee, Fukedome and Theriot are finding and refining their swings.  And even #5 pitcher Jason Marquis, who will not likely start in the 4-man rotation Lou has planned, proved his value as a potential pinch-hitter with a grand slam at Shea.

Just as spring training is a time to enjoy games and anticipate the season, this week is a time to appreciate all this season has been, enjoy the fact that the Cubs are still playing aggressively, and to anticipate what the post-season may bring.  What a way to welcome fall…

News Flash: The Bears Need a QB

I’ve got to hand it to my mom. She may not wear her sports fandom on her sleeve, but she’s a fan and a perceptive one at that. She knew to blame the offense and not Lou’s decision to pull Carlos Zambrano for last season’s playoff debacle.

But she’s also an aware football fan. That was how this conversation came to take place during yesterday’s Bears debacle. Ok, so it covers a lot of the obvious. But I guess that’s just the point. Why is this problem obvious to everyone in the known world, except to those brilliant minds who occupy the offices at Halas Hall?

Scene: Kyle Orton throws a pick.

Mom: Why is it that the Bears nev-er have a good quarterback?
Me: *tongue firmly in cheek* If Sid Luckman were still alive, I’m sure he’d be very offended right now.
Brother #2: *laughing*
Me: Seriously, that’s the eternal question. If you can figure it out, I’m sure they’d like to know.
Mom: Why didn’t we get Brett Favre?
Me: *shrug* Favre was a second round pick. Every team in the NFL passed on him. 20/20 hindsight.
Mom: No, I’m talking about this season. Why didn’t we trade for him when the Packers were trying to unload him?
Me: You were paying attention! Fact is, when it came right down to it, the Packers probably wouldn’t have traded him within the division, but that didn’t stop us from offering a preemptive “well, we didn’t want him anyway.”
Mom: Well, I can see why that would be a conflict of interest, so to speak, for them to trade him to us. But we seriously didn’t even give it a shot? Pathetic.

See, Jerry! My mom, who alternates between enjoying and just barely tolerating football, gets it. Why can’t you? This. Is. Your. Job. And you suck at it.

Somehow or another, despite having no sense whatsoever for offensive talent, you’ve lucked yourself into Matt Forte this year. Make it count. This season is already a loss, but there’s still time to make it right for the future.

Please, I’m begging you. Stop screwing it up.

[On a side note, my brothers and I have taken to cheering on Kyle Orton with a half-serious half-mocking chant of "Manage that game! Manage that game!" When I tried to start the cheer up again on the next offensive series after his second pick (hey, he obviously needed all the help he could get), Brother #1 gave me a look of disgust. "He has used up his chances. He will get no more chants until he stops sucking."]

Dear Chargers,

Lay off Ed Hochuli. I’m serious. I’m a little embarrassed for you that it has gone on this long.

You gave up 39 points. 39. That’s a three with a nine after it.

Even if you subtract out the 6 points for that touchdown, that’s still 33 points, including a beyond crucial two point conversion. Nice defense. Plus, you’ve already shown a propensity to wilt in the final minutes of close games, and it’s only the second week of the season.

This, like the AJ play, definitely falls under the category of Carping About The Umpires/Referees That I Could Very Well Do Without. Once you’ve fully addressed all the sucktasticness of your team that allowed you to be in such a precarious position as to be ruined by one call, then you can come and complain about everyone else.

Until then, bugger off.

kthnxbye,
TheWittyOne

What To Do With Wrigley?

In a press conference after his no-hitter, Carlos Zambrano professed his admiration for Miller Park, noting how its facilities when well beyond what Wrigley offers players. He even went so far as to say that he wished the Cubs would build a new ballpark like Miller Park. At first, the comment was sort of glossed over during the immediate aftermath of the no-no, an aftermath understandably focused on the feat itself.

But now that the no-hitter is a few days past, and now that the Cubs have almost wrapped up the division, the media is looking for a new stories. So several reporters have taken it upon themselves to ask the other Cubs players: Do you agree with Zambrano’s sentiments, despite the fact that many would consider them blasphemous? Would you like to see Wrigley replaced with a new ballpark? And while all have professed their reverence for the history of Wrigley, and their love for its legendary atmosphere, most of them have agreed that it would be nice to have a ballpark with a clubhouse larger than a bread box, or with state-of-the-art workout and rehab amenities. The players are nearly unanimous. They’d welcome a new ballpark.

As much as I love Wrigley and love the history, I am somewhat inclined to agree. The fact of the matter is that Wrigley will not last forever. No manmade structure is going to stand forever. Every single ballpark, no matter how historic, is going to be torn down eventually. Sooner or later, Wrigley will have to be replaced, or at least gutted and rebuilt. And that “sooner” might be fast approaching.

First things first. The Cubs need to win a world series. No one is going to let a historic field like Wrigley get razed with a historic drought still in tact. And furthermore, nothing’s going to happen until the sale of the team finally goes through. But if the Cubs should manage to bring this season’s success to its ultimate completion, and if the sale goes through this off-season, as most expect, it might be time to start getting the public used to the idea of a new ballpark sometime within the next five years or so.

Jason Marquis had perhaps the most interesting idea. He wants to see a replica ballpark built on the same site. Build a new park, he suggests, with the ivy and the bricks and such still around, but put in modern conveniences like all-new facilities for the players, better concessions and seats for the fans, and a jumbotron (fashioned to resemble the current old-school scoreboard).

I don’t think I can stand for the idea of a jumbotron. I don’t need a screen telling me when to “Make Some Noise!” I’m an informed fan. I know when to make noise. If I’m not making noise, it’s a deliberate choice. Like, I’m not going to make noise to encourage a crappy reliever who shouldn’t even be in the game in the first place (*cough* Howry *cough*). I can think for myself; I don’t need the jumbotron doing the thinking for me. But overall, his idea has merit.

Perhaps my favorite plan is another I’ve heard floated from time-to-time, one somewhat similar to Marquis’ suggestion. Leave everything from foul pole to foul pole in tact. That includes the poles themselves, the ivy, the bleachers and the scoreboard—i.e., the things most quintessentially “Wrigley.” Then, tear the rest of it down and build a modern ballpark with all the bells and whistles we’ve come to expect, but one that still fits structurally and aesthetically with the core of the old park. And then move the iconic marquee to the front of the new park and call it a day.

Of course, this plan would probably mean the Cubs would have to play an entire home season away from Wrigley, most likely playing at US Cellular Field. That might make for rough sailing that season, but it would be worth it in the end. The fans and the history of the team—futile as that history is—are what really make Wrigley a great place to see a game. So long as the new ballpark doesn’t work against that dynamic, I think everyone wins.

Total Domination

Most of the time, I prefer a really good game to total domination, because good games are usually more interesting.  There are times, though, when I savor domination and would like to see more of it.  Recently, there have been quite a few instances of total domination — or lack thereof — that delight and annoy.

USC 35, OSU 3
This one really annoyed me.  I wasn’t able to watch, but I was hoping for a really good game.  Would have been good for college football and the Big Ten if it had been a game.  I am already tired of the comment, “The only team that can beat USC is USC.” 

Cubs pitching vs. Houston
1 hit in a 2-game series?  Wow.  This was a total domination to savor.  A no-hitter, followed by a (very) quality start and a solid bullpen effort.  This should give the Cubs momentum to ride into the post season…

Brewers front office vs. Ned Yost
I believe the loss of your job classifies as being dominated, and this is one of those instances that has me scratching my head, just because the end of the season is nearly here.  Not surprised that Ned won’t be in Milwaukee, just that he’s moving on before the wildcard is determined.

Illinois 20, Louisiana-Lafayette 17
I would have preferred total domination here to the relatively flat second half put together by my Illini.  I don’t like seeing a I-AA team come back from a 14-point deficit in the 4th quarter.  But it was a W, so we will put it toward the total needed to go somewhere nice in December/January and move on to prepare for the Big Ten season

Notre Dame 35, Michigan 17
I’m torn on this one.  While I don’t mind seeing the Wolverines lose, it’s hard to see Charlie win.  But 6 turnovers?  That deserves total domination.  As long as the Blue and Maize aren’t able to get it together before the Illini come to town…

Mountain West Conference 4, Pac-10 0
Have we moved past parity in college football to the rise of the non-BCS conferences?  Probably not completely, but the Pac-10 was dominated by the Mountain West.  BYU killed UCLA in an embarrassing shutout, but the TCU Horned Frogs (what a team) dominated Stanford 31-14.  The Lobos beat Arizona by more than a TD, and UNLV just edged #15 Arizona State.

Fox, CBS and NBC calls vs. ESPN Monday Night Football
Love the ESPN Monday Night Football commercials.  They always make me smile.  And the Blitz and other NFL programming is solid.  But in the broadcast booth on Monday nights?  Still painful.  Give me any other play-by-play/color team any day — especially on Monday.

I’d like to see more Cubs domination this week, but close games and unexpected upsets make college football fun.  So Pete, in the interest of keeping things interesting, how ’bout letting your team beat itself?