Another baseball season is almost upon us. Last year, I remarked that I had no expectations for the Cubs season, but in the literal sense of that phrase. That is, I didn’t mean that to say I thought they would suck. I actually didn’t not know what to expect. This year, I feel like I have a little bit better of a grasp. As I’ve pointed out, the Cubs spent the vast majority of last season playing at a rate that would’ve netted them 90+ victories, if extended out over an entire season. Assuming they can avoid another early season collapse, and assuming they are as good or slightly improved from last year (both large assumptions, I’ll grant), I see no reason why they can’t win 94ish games. And that should take this division with no problems. Milwaukee will be a challenge, but they have pitching issues. Dusty Baker will have his first year mojo going with the Reds, but they don’t have the talent depth to make a run at it.
However, winning a weak division doesn’t make you one of the big boys. So I’d summarize the outlook for the Cubs this way: If they do not make the playoffs, it will be a massive disappointment. If they do much beyond that, it will be a massive surprise. In other words, this year should turn out just about like last year, but hopefully with less agony along the way.
However, anything could happen. I’m not really sold on any NL team, even the Mets. That team is older than dirt and Willie Randolph is running out of duct tape. It’s not completely out of line to think that the Cubs could emerge from the NL. The AL, by contrast, is quite deep, but we only need to beat one AL team to win the World Series.
More specifically—
Rotation. This is an area of some concern for me. Carlos Zambrano…well, he really can’t be as bad as last year, can he? Furthermore, stats tell us he’s good for about 15 victories, perhaps a few more, in any given year—and that’s a rather big checkmark in the positive column. He is, however, probably the worst, most infuriating pitcher who can be counted on for 15 victories. Ted Lilly had a career year last year. Moving to the NL helped, but I’m not sure he can replicate what he did last year. He may not have to reach quite that level in order to help the Cubs (assuming other players hold up their end of the bargain *cough* Zambrano *cough*), but he can’t afford too much of a drop off.
I am not now, nor have I ever been, sold on the Ryan Dempster as starter experiment, and I think that if this goes bad it could go very bad. He’s already lost his closer job, so if he sucks, you can’t really send him back to the pen except as your long relief guy. And he can easily pitch away all his trade value with a crappy first month or two. I still say he should’ve been traded in the off-season. Jason Marquis, on the other hand, can boost his trade value with good first month or two. And history says he’s likely to give us just that. But then it’s going to have to be move, move, move—either to the pen or to another team.
Rich Hill needs to step it up, and there really is no longer or more analytical way of putting that. He’s long past the point of growing into his role as a major leaguer. I think Rich Hill has the stuff to establish himself as a legit #3 or even #2 starter if he has the year he’s capable of. Otherwise, he’s officially established himself as little more than a serviceable #5 starter, maybe a #4 on the right team. And as far as I’m concerned, Jon Leiber is nothing special. But, on the other hand, he’s not really being called upon to be anything special. He’s called upon to be, in effect, the 6th starter. And for that role, I think the vast majority of teams would take him in a second.
Bullpen. Will likely be the strength of the team. They already go pretty deep, and they’ve got some good arms in the farm system to boot. The only thing that concerns me is the lack of left-handers. Eyre’s on the shelf, and he took his good sweet time getting on track last year. At this rate, it could be July before he’s in form. Sean Marshall needs to be the pleasant surprise he’s been the last two years, albeit in a different spot this time.
Infield. Probably the biggest area of concern, in my opinion. Derrek Lee has the capability to have another huge year. But after two down years and one major injury, time and consistency aren’t on his side. I think he’ll be better than he has been, but his defense is the only area of his game that comes with any guarantees. Aramis Ramirez should be solid, and he better be in order to erase the memories of his playoff collapse. The middle infield is the major area for improvement. What I’ve seen this spring has convinced me that we need Brian Roberts, and I was not on board with that deal a few months back.
We need a true leadoff hitter. And while I love Ryan Theriot, and while he has many of the characteristics of a good leadoff hitter, he just doesn’t have them to the degree that a team with pennant aspirations needs. Mark DeRosa has done nothing to merit losing his job. But a team with Brian Roberts as the second baseman and DeRosa as the supersub is better than a team with DeRosa as the second baseman and no Brian Roberts. Plus, of the names I’ve heard thrown around for the Brian Roberts deal, most of them are players I have no trouble parting with. I know the deal is allegedly dead, but now that I’ve finally jumped the bandwagon I will be steadfast in my refusal to get off it.
And with the awesome twosome of Ronny Cedeno and Mike Fontenot as your back-up infielders, let’s just say this isn’t a particular area of depth. Geovany Soto appears to be an upgrade at catcher, but “appears” is the operative word here. We’re going on rather scant evidence.
Outfield. Level of concern pending. The Cubs may have two of the premier corner outfielders in the league, offensively and defensively. This assumes that Fukudome plays up to the level most are expecting, and that Soriano shows no lingering ill effects from last year’s leg injury. Honestly, I don’t know if Soriano’s got any wheels left, injury or no. We’ll see. Centerfield is an area of concern, a fact which hasn’t exactly been kept a secret. Pie has yet to prove that he can play on a major league level. Reed Johnson is a very nice addition, but a platoon of Johnson and Pie in centerfield seems no better than passable.
Daryle Ward is nominally the other back-up outfielder, but let’s be honest. He’s here as a pinch hitter, and little else. He does that well, but you can’t count on him for OF help. To that end, I find it very difficult to accept Murton’s dismissal from the 25-man roster. He’s got a solid OBP and is coming off a very good spring. If you can have only Felix Pie or Matt Murton, who do you really want? And yes, I know Murton’s not a centerfielder so we can’t actually make that one-for-one exchange. I’m just sayin’.
This is also another reason why the Brian Roberts deal helps. While I’m completely unimpressed with DeRosa’s outfield defense, he can play out there in RF, which gives you another off-the-bench option.
Manager. I’m not buying the notion that Lou Piniella is going to be more settled this year. The lineup is still all over the place, and I’m willing to suffer a few weeks of mayhem in order to find the one that works. Plus, there’s enough potential in the farm system that callups can be made if certain players don’t pan out, or get injured, etc. And then there’s the never-dying trade rumors. The moving and the switching can’t go on as long as it did last year, nor become as extreme as it was last year, but the idea that Lou’s suddenly going to come in with his lineup all neat and tidy is based on wishful thinking, in my opinion. He’s going to benefit from a year of tenure, and his willingness to try new things while retaining a decidedly old school edge is to be commended.
But fantasies about a settled roster and lineup are just that: fantasies.
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